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Sports betting offers a fun and exciting way of earning money online. It combines the fun of enjoying your favorite game and the additional excitement of getting money from your sports team’s victory. There are those who make online sports betting a way of earning money. They improvise a system that will make the chance of winning higher by using facts gathered from previous games. While some bettors bet based on instinct or according to their personal favorites, Play Casino Games in Sandton bettors that aims at earning money would use a formula based on available resources to improve their chance of winning. There are websites that use sports betting system to predict winners. Look for the best sports betting website for a more reliable predictions.
Luck still plays a big role in winning or losing the game. But there are measurable aspects of the game that will balance luck with probability which therefore increase the chance of winning. Bookmakers often change the weight of winning and losing stake to encourage bettors in a lopsided game. There is a choice whether to stay on the safer margin or go against the odds for a larger stake. Wise bettors tend to go safe and ensure win with lower stakes while those who like to gamble would go with the spread for a larger stake.
The best sports betting strategy is to bet against the public. Bookmakers will prompt you to bet against the public whenever certain games are causing the public to bet on a match in favor of a losing team. This will cause a high percentage of winning to those who will bet in favor of the winning team. Bookmakers often require subscription to be able to get alerts on the games with a high percentage of winning against a public bet.
The subscription is actually just a small amount compared to the potentially large sum of to be won through their betting against the public alert. Look for a reliable bookmaker that will provide the best sports betting strategy.
Subscribing to a bookmaker for best sports betting strategy is profitable in the long run. It would give the bettor an edge over other people because he would have an access to the bookmaker’s trade secret which is the alerts whenever there are games where there are rampant bet against a team with high probability to win.
The subscribed bettor will be ensured of a good percentage of winning. He would still be subjected to lose in some of his bet but because of the high rate of winning against losing, he will profit in his business over a period of time.Online sports betting is a profitable business for some people. There are ways to guarantee a high percentage of win by subscribing to website that specializes in analyzing information gather from previous games. The result of the analysis becomes the basis for a team’s winning percentage in their next game. These websites offer the best sports betting system in the internet. They can guarantee that bettors subscribed in their website will produce good results.
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This is the third instalment in a series of articles on profitable betting through sensible money management. So far, I have discussed the importance of getting value when you bet, to maximise the returns you achieve when your selections win. In the most recent article you should have learned to keep your stakes in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Today I want to examine a common mistake that often gets punters into serious trouble – chasing your losses.
I don’t think there can be many of us who have not at some time, decided to get back what we just lost by betting a little bigger on the next race. It is sometimes known as progressive staking.
Let’s take a simple scenario: you bet £10 on Red Rum, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection methods and come up with another pick in the next race – Best Mate. The price is 6/4F
But, rather than putting another £10 bet on Best Mate, you decide to ‘chase’ your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when Best Mate wins you will pick up an extra £10.50 to recover the bet you lost on Red Rum. Good plan? Could be, after all Best Mate is a sure fire winner, right? May be. May be not!
What happens if Best Mate loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole’. But you still have a plan. Your next selection is a dead cert winner at Even money. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra £27 to cover your losses so far. No need to worry. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to show as well.
Let’s take a step back here. You are staking £37 to win a £10 profit. Think about it – you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Even money in the market. That is terrible value!
You may escape this time and your horse may well win. But what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot even money favourite fails to win? After just three bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your normal stake is just a tenner!
Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you might think, and even with short-priced selections.
If you spent a day in a casino at the roulette tables, and analysed how many times you witnessed a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red’ numbers, I would not be at all surprised if you saw this happen four or five times – in a single day. Here we have pretty much a 50/50 bet, even money, that the roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was amazed to learn that the longest run of the same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds!!
Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no worries, it’s got to be black next time…. Surely?”
But let’s go back to the more common occurrence of a losing run of 7 even money bets. We will be betting on the red.
We place a £1 bet on the first spin. It’s black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up’ and next bet £2. If we were to carry on in this manner, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1
I sincerely hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can very quickly see your stakes climbing to preposterous levels, to win your original, relatively small stake. The risk is way out of proportion compared to the potential reward.
One last example to really ram the point home. The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are involved, representing the nation’s newspapers and horse racing publications. These are experts at tipping horses. Take a look at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run. Remember, these are the experts.
I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from an expert tipster! And believe me, he is not on his own, just the worst offender this season so far.
There is an old saying – “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, don’t try and make them profitable by throwing more money at them. You may survive with a profit for a while, but this approach is a disaster waiting to happen. Sooner or later you WILL blow your entire bank chasing a disproportionately small profit.
If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, change your system.
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There are punters who like the 'draw' market as it pays well. One common argument among these 'draw' punters is "Are draws independent of form, that is, are they random?". There are two views :* One view is that draws are independent of previous results, that each match is different. These punters do not accept the theory that a draw is due just because it has not happened for a long time. They believe that the match outcome depends on circumstances and conditions of that particular game, for example : attacking and defending capabilities of both teams, weather on that day, pitch condition, etc.* There are opposing punters who feel strongly that the probability of draws depends on the previous games, that it boils down to the psychology and mentality of the players of the 'drawish' teams.Irrespective of whatever camp these draw specialists are in, all of them agree that draw bets are more worthwhile compared to betting Home or Away as the average odds are more attractive.In picking winning 'draws', the following factors are to be considered :1) It is essential to choose the teams instead of choosing the matches, that draw is largely due to the style of play, such as :* Defensive style and struggling to attack will tend to draw more. * Attacking formation and tactics will not draw too often.2) If a certain team draws a few matches, analyse why :* Does the team have problems scoring? If yes, why. (Is the key striker injured?)* Is the team renowned for tight defence?* Is it psychological? Maybe a team on a long losing run may try harder just to get at least a point, that is, a draw.3) The following trends in matches ending with a draw are common :* Matches where both teams are happy with a point, for example, a draw is sufficient for both to avoid relegation or to qualify for a cup competition.* Matches played in poor weather conditions like heavy rain which usually lead to less goals and higher chance for a draw.* Derby matches where a draw may satisfy both parties.* Home team in great form against Away team in strong top table position.4) Teams which draw a lot with each other repeatedly could mean :* They are equal in strength.* There is some kind of psychological impact that it is tough for one of them to break the other down.5) Do take note of the following :* If a team has been drawing a lot, and if it has appointed a new manager, wait a few matches to determine if this team is still drawing frequently.* Be cautious with newly promoted and newly relegated teams where performance can be erratic.* Teams improving in form which may be more likely to draw playing Away.ConclusionSome leagues appear to have either a higher or lower percentage of draws compared to others. This could be due to the characteristics of the leagues in terms of competitiveness, or even prevalence of match fixing. This is why some bookmakers do not offer odds on certain minor European league matches at the end of the season.
Betting On Horse Racing : Sensible Money Management (part 3)
In a previous article I jokingly suggested I had put all my assets – my savings, the deeds to the farm, my kids’ Trust fund, and the proceeds from selling one of my kidneys – on a horse at Newbury. I showed this was potentially financial suicide, and an extreme example of bad money management.
I wrote that more often than not a losing punter will find himself saddled with a bunch of bad betting habits. It is these bad habits that have gotten him, and his betting bank, to where his is now – the Poor House.
To arrive at a change in fortune, and to start making consistent profits, the losing punter has to be prepared to make changes to the way in which he bets. In the previous article we talked about the cornerstone supporting my own personal betting strategy, and that is finding value in every bet you make.
You will only ever make a profit from betting if you consistently back horses at prices too high when compared to their actual chance of winning. This is exactly how bookmakers have made their money for generations – they consistently lay horses at prices too low compared to the actual chance of the horse winning. When punters continue to take these low prices day-in and day-out, it will only ever be the bookmakers who come out with a profit in the long run.
The second ‘bad habit’ I want to examine is the subject of inappropriate staking. What do I mean by staking that is not appropriate? Well, what I am driving at is placing bets that are generally too large in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Before I expand upon this, the concept of a betting bank is a side-issue in itself. You categorically MUST have a sum of money put aside for the sole purpose of betting. It scares me rigid when I hear of people simply ‘dipping’ into their current account to place a bet using their debit card.
If you do not have a separate account for your betting activities, you cannot keep records, and you will not be able to answer that simple question, “Am I making a profit, or a loss?”
It goes without saying, that betting involves a degree of risk, and you should never bet with money you cannot afford to lose.
Getting back to inappropriate staking, the idea of lumping all your money on one horse is an extreme example of over-staking. Of course, on the one occasion this strategy may pay off. We had friends round a few nights ago to play one of those Race Night DVDs. I was comfortably in front by studying the form before each race, and placing considered bets at what I considered to be value prices. As you might imagine, I had a suitably smug expression on my face as we came to the last race, and our friends were complaining I enjoyed a ‘professional advantage’.
My wife then decided to put every penny she had left on an 8/1 chance. The race turned out to be the ‘lucky last’ for my wife, and she walked away with the whole bank!
But seriously, continue with these tactics, and it will not be long before you lose everything.
Personally, I would never consider starting any betting campaign with a bankroll of less than 100 points. In other words, I will divide my bank by 100 to arrive at my unit stake. You can see that I will only ever be putting 1% of my bank at risk when I place a bet.
This is a very generalised approach, and you might argue that a little more consideration should be given to a punter’s typical strike rate. True, if someone has a strike rate of 50% then it is statistically highly unlikely that he will suffer a run of 100 losers to go bust. So, in this case you might be justified in operating a smaller bank. Bear in mind that when flipping a coin, it is by no means unusual to see 6 or 7 ‘heads’ in succession, and losing runs in double figures do occur.
Erring on the side of caution, you could foresee two such losing runs occurring twice in close succession. In which case, I hope you can see that even when considering a system which such a high strike rate, having a bank of well over 20 points now seems very sensible.
With my own Redd Racing betting service, we enjoy what I would consider to be quite a healthy strike rate. However, we have experienced a negative swing of some 60 points during one particular month a couple years back. The account recovered to make a profit by the end of the month, but it underlined the importance of having a bankroll large enough to absorb the losing runs that EVERYBODY has to endure from time to time.
Indeed, it would probably be better advice if I suggested members of my service had a bankroll of 150 or even 200 points in reserve.
Yet I often receive emails asking me whether it is OK to deposit £100 with Betfair and start with unit stakes of £10.
Betting with stakes too high in proportion to your bank normally comes out of a desire to make money quickly. I think we are all guilty of getting overly greedy sometimes, and unwilling to think a little more long-term. People are inclined to set themselves unrealistic profit targets, given the size of their betting bankroll. Having a bank of £100 and expecting to be able to make £100 per month is not realistic. Get-rich-quick does not exist.
Akin to the Tortoise and Hare story, let me give you an example of where what might initially seem like a very moderate return, actually gives surprising results over time.
If you started with £100 in your betting bank, and increased this bank by just one-half of one per cent every day, after just 6 months your account would have a balance of £244 due to the compounding effect. You could more than double your investment in 6 months with this seemingly small daily profit return. Take that to your bank or building society and see if they can come anywhere near such a deal!
Hopefully this demonstrates how ‘slowly but surely’ wins the race.
To summarize, my advice would be to set your unit stakes at one per cent, or even one half of one per cent, of your total betting bank. By striking only value bets, and when the odds are in your favour, your betting bank will grow. As your bank grows, so you can naturally increase the size of your unit stake to make more profit – but your bets will still be in proportion to your bank.
In the next part of this Sensible Money Management series, I will look at more bad habits that suck money from the accounts of losing punters.
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