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Wasn’t it me that predicted that Twins manager Ron Gardenhire would be the first baseball manager to be shown the door in 2006? Yes I also think that Barry Bonds is being unfairly accused of using performance enhancing drugs? No Gardenhire is doing just fine these days as he and his troops prepare for a crucial three game set in the Twin Cities tonight.
Minnesota (59-41) has won 34 of 42 since June 8 to cut what was an 11-game deficit in the wild card to a half-game.
"We’re just playing really good baseball," said manager Ron Gardenhire, whose team was 25-33 nearly seven weeks ago. "People keep talking about the streak we’re on, but streaks don’t last two months or a month and a half."
The Twins caught the struggling Chicago White Sox, who have led the wild-card race for most of the season, by completing a three-game sweep with a 7-4 victory Wednesday. Minnesota and Chicago are right behind the New York Yankees, who open a three-game home set against Tampa Bay on Friday night.
The Tigers under veteran skipper Jim Leyland have maintained their composure and now must deal with the newest phenom in the American League and that would be none other then rookie pitcher Francisco Liariano. The Twins look to keep rolling Friday behind Liriano (12-2, 1.93 ERA), who pitched poorly against the Tigers in two relief outings this season, allowing seven runs and 11 hits in 3 2-3 innings for a 17.18 ERA.
Since being moved into the rotation, though, the rookie left-hander has become a leading contender for the CY Young Award, going 11-2 with a 1.59 ERA in 13 starts. Minnesota is 2-7 this season against Detroit and has been outscored 64-25. In a three-game sweep from April 28-30 at Comerica Park, the Twins were outscored 33-1. The Tigers (68-33) have the best record in the major leagues, and their 30-13 mark against divisional opponents is also tops in baseball. Detroit leads the AL Central by 8 1/2 games over Minnesota and Chicago.
The question mark for all contending teams is the starting pitching and the Tigers send a struggling Zach Miner to the hill tonight. Miner has lasted only 6 2-3 combined innings and given up 10 earned runs in losing both of his starts since the break. In his first seven starts after being recalled in early June, the right-hander was 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA and didn’t allow more than three runs in a game.
Detroit gave Miner a five-run lead after one inning Saturday against Oakland, but he surrendered five runs in the top of the second and was pulled after a season-low 2 1-3 innings of a 9-5 loss.
Detroit has lost 9 of the past 12 in Minnesota and will be a dog tonight!
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There are punters who like the 'draw' market as it pays well. One common argument among these 'draw' punters is "Are draws independent of form, that is, are they random?". There are two views :* One view is that draws are independent of previous results, that each match is different. These punters do not accept the theory that a draw is due just because it has not happened for a long time. They believe that the match outcome depends on circumstances and conditions of that particular game, for example : attacking and defending capabilities of both teams, weather on that day, pitch condition, etc.* There are opposing punters who feel strongly that the probability of draws depends on the previous games, that it boils down to the psychology and mentality of the players of the 'drawish' teams.Irrespective of whatever camp these draw specialists are in, all of them agree that draw bets are more worthwhile compared to betting Home or Away as the average odds are more attractive.In picking winning 'draws', the following factors are to be considered :1) It is essential to choose the teams instead of choosing the matches, that draw is largely due to the style of play, such as :* Defensive style and struggling to attack will tend to draw more. * Attacking formation and tactics will not draw too often.2) If a certain team draws a few matches, analyse why :* Does the team have problems scoring? If yes, why. (Is the key striker injured?)* Is the team renowned for tight defence?* Is it psychological? Maybe a team on a long losing run may try harder just to get at least a point, that is, a draw.3) The following trends in matches ending with a draw are common :* Matches where both teams are happy with a point, for example, a draw is sufficient for both to avoid relegation or to qualify for a cup competition.* Matches played in poor weather conditions like heavy rain which usually lead to less goals and higher chance for a draw.* Derby matches where a draw may satisfy both parties.* Home team in great form against Away team in strong top table position.4) Teams which draw a lot with each other repeatedly could mean :* They are equal in strength.* There is some kind of psychological impact that it is tough for one of them to break the other down.5) Do take note of the following :* If a team has been drawing a lot, and if it has appointed a new manager, wait a few matches to determine if this team is still drawing frequently.* Be cautious with newly promoted and newly relegated teams where performance can be erratic.* Teams improving in form which may be more likely to draw playing Away.ConclusionSome leagues appear to have either a higher or lower percentage of draws compared to others. This could be due to the characteristics of the leagues in terms of competitiveness, or even prevalence of match fixing. This is why some bookmakers do not offer odds on certain minor European league matches at the end of the season.